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    • license Cement production in was billion tonnes Emerging

    2018-11-01

    Cement production in 2014 was 4.3 billion tonnes. Emerging economies (China, India, CIS, others Asia) account for roughly 3.5 billion tonnes, 81% of the world\'s production. Industrialized countries (Europe, USA, Japan) produced roughly 0.4 billion tonnes, 9% of the world\'s cement production [5]. According to the Eleventh Edition of the Global Cement Report, global cement consumption was still on the rise in 2015 and further increase for 2016 is expected, notwithstanding that there will be a slower rate than in the past [6]. Most cement consumption takes place in the fastest-growing economies like China, India, Russia, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico and Chile. From an investment perspective, the stock markets of these countries are more volatile than the mature markets of developed countries but offer higher returns. This makes them more attractive as well as riskier. Concerning Cuba, the opening-up process currently undergoing and the untied relationship with US government, will most probably boost the overall investment, thus, fostering the development of new infrastructure [7,8]. The regulatory framework in the country portrays a secure and less risky place where to invest with promising higher profitability and faster payback periods. This also might be the case of many other emerging economy\'s countries. “Now that Cuba has relations with the United States, the country risk has diminished for foreign investors” [9]. The growth in cement demand in most dynamic economies takes place within short periods. Annual growth rates between 5–15% are common in these scenarios. Coping with a sudden demand could be an issue for the cement industry because installing production capacity is a capital intensive and time consuming process (setting up a new cement plant, 1.0M tonnes per year would cost more than 250 Million US dollars, and would take around 4–5 years to be operational) [10,11]. Commonly, the license of building up infrastructure in emerging economies ranges between 20 and 30 years. After 20 years, demand enters a stabilization phase that lasts 10–15 years (plateau), and as soon as infrastructure is in place, demand declines. Meeting peak demand prompts for a detailed investment strategy, due to the risk of installed capacity exceeding demand within the payback period. The use of Supplementary Cementitious Materials (SCM) has been well-grounded and well-documented [12–17]. Different clinker substitution levels can be achieved depending on the type of SCM and its particular pozzolanic reactivity. However, limited world wide availability and limits in clinker replacement hinder the ultimate benefits of these substitutions. Other alternatives such as geopolymers have been developed [18,19]. They can have interest in terms of carbon reduction and resource consumption but their use is foreseen in a medium to long term perspective. Among these alternatives, Limestone calcined clay cement, coined as LC3 has been developed. A deeper undersanding on the technical development of LC3 can be found in [15,17,20]. This paper focuses on the assessment of the different options in terms of cement technology for the Cuban cement industry, through their economic benefits and carbon mitigation potentials. The financial success was measured using the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) approach. The environmental impact is considered with Global Warming Potential through CO2-eq., which enables addressing carbon savings among technological scenarios.
    Description of alternative technologies for cement production in Cuba
    Definition of investment scenarios The Cuban cement industry reports production of 1.8Mt of cement in 2014 [32]. According to estimations from the cement enterprise group in the country [22], total cement production in 2015 equals 1.9Mt. The current demand exceeds production, which is a stimulus for investment in this sector to increase manufacturing capacity as well as its use efficiency. The outdated technology does not allow for a higher utilization rate due to the requirement for several periods of maintenance and repair of equipment and facilities. Actually, it can be considered that the utilisation rate of cement plant is close to 40% (Fig. 2).